Myopia Progression Risk Calculator

Evidence-based pediatric risk stratification & trajectory projection
Clinical view
Progression risk score
Moderate
LowModerateHighVery High
Estimated age of myopia onset
Estimated Rx progression
Untreated
High myopia (−6D)
Projection table * AL estimated from Rx (1D ≈ 0.35mm); worse eye
Age Est. Rx — untreated Est. Rx — with intervention Est. axial length Risk level
Intervention efficacy reference
Ortho-K
~45–55% reduction
Axial length primary endpoint
MiSight 1 day
~50–60% reduction
3-year BOZM trial data
Atropine 0.05%
~45–55% reduction
ATOM2 / LAMP data
Atropine 0.01%
~15–25% reduction
Lower rebound risk
Stellest / DIMS
~50–65% reduction
Bao et al. 2022 axial data
MF Soft CL
~35–45% reduction
BLINK study
Ortho-K + Atro
~65–75% reduction
Combination therapy
Stellest + Atro
~60–70% reduction
† Extrapolated; no dedicated RCT as of 2025
Outdoor time
~50% onset risk ↓
2+ hrs/day, prevention
Efficacy ranges reflect within-study variance across published trials. Cross-trial comparisons are not valid — studies differ in population, age range, follow-up duration, and primary endpoints. Ranges use midpoints for curve calculations. † Stellest + atropine: extrapolated from Stellest monotherapy data and combination-therapy analogy; no dedicated RCT available as of 2025. Sources: COMET, ATOM2, LAMP, BOZM, MiSight 3-year extension, Bao et al. 2022, BLINK, Rosner-Grosvenor, SCORM. Pre-myopic onset predictions based on CLEERE / Zadnik et al. methodology. AL estimated from Rx (1D ≈ 0.35mm); worse eye only. Does not replace clinical judgment.
These projections are estimates based on population data and your child's individual risk profile. Actual progression varies. All options should be discussed with your optometrist.
Printed · The Spark Optometry · thesparkoptometry.com · For internal clinical use only